Energy experts say oil and gasoline prices are unlikely to return to normal levels immediately following Sunday's announcement of an agreement to end the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with supply chain recovery expected to take months.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and gasoline supplies typically pass, has been closed for more than three months during the conflict. Ships loaded with crude oil have been stranded in the Persian Gulf, unable to safely navigate the waterway.

According to Daniel Evans, global head of fuels and refining research at S&P Global Energy, multiple factors will delay supply recovery. Ships must first exit the strait safely, followed by new tankers entering to load cargo. The process requires confidence in sustained security and proper insurance coverage before operations can resume.

The physical constraints of oil transportation add additional delays. Oil tankers move slowly and require months to travel from the strait to distant countries, deliver crude oil to refineries for processing, and reach final destinations. Some Middle Eastern producers also paused oil extraction when storage capacity was exhausted, and restarting these operations presents technical challenges.

Countries with alternative pipeline routes, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, may resume production more quickly than nations like Iraq, which experienced larger production shutdowns and faces more complex operational challenges. Alan Gelder of Wood Mackenzie estimates Iraq may require up to a year to fully restore operations.

Energy investment, which typically takes years to yield results, halted after the strait's closure. Daniel Sternoff of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy noted that countries will likely wait to ensure the ceasefire's durability before committing to restart major production operations, as they need confidence in long-term stability beyond a temporary 30 to 60-day period.